Friday, 9 December 2011

UN to Roll out Changes to Senior Team for Next 5-Year Term & Kofi Annan Deputy - The risks of sleepwalking into a war with Iran

"When you are totally at peace with yourself, nothing can shake you."
# The Truth About NGO's
# Episode 1
New Documentary Explores China's Growing Presence in Africa – Video
Clinton tells developing world to be wary of donors eyeing resources
(Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged developing nations on Wednesday to be "smart shoppers" on foreign aid, warning that powerful emerging economies such as China may be more interested in exploiting natural resources than promoting real development.
New DSK Book Tells of His Side of Diallo Affair, Prostitution Ring
In a new book that hit French shelves yesterday, the sex scandals and conspiracy theories behind the downfall of Dominique Strauss-Kahn are dissected. Tracy McNicoll on the book’s most explosive charges.
Rep. Walsh to UN: No Gun Control Treaties
Representative Joe Walsh (R-IL) has drafted a bill that would block U.S. funding to the United Nations if it seeks to implement gun control measures affecting U.S. citizens. (UN Agenda Link)
Despite victories by gun owners in elections and legislative battles throughout the country in recent years, on the international front gun control is moving quickly.
UN to Roll out Changes to Senior Team for Next 5-Year Term
... Mr. Ban is currently undertaking a thorough review of his entire team, with the aim of rolling out the changes in a phased manner. It is expected that eight Under-Secretaries-General will leave around the first half of 2012.
They are Muhammad Shaaban, Under-Secretary-General for General Assembly Affairs and Conference Management; Kiyotaka Akasaka, Under-Secretary-General for Communications and Public Information; B. Lynn Pascoe, Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs; and Sha Zukang, Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs.
Also on the list are Sergio Duarte, High Representative for Disarmament; Cheick Sidi Diarra, Special Adviser for Africa; Abdoulie Janneh, Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA); and Ján Kubiš, Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Europe (ECE).
The selection process has also begun for five Assistant Secretary-General positions at the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)...
What Africa means to Minnesota businesses
... Kofi Annan, the former secretary-general of the United Nations, and former Vice President Walter Mondale are cochairs of the Law & Democracy Initiative.
In a commentary published last summer ("Now, sustain those moves to democracy," Aug. 13), they explained the important connection between education, the rule of law and a strong business climate:
"The rule of law is equally fundamental for the development of a healthy democracy, good governance and a prosperous economy... []
Local companies shun UN bidding process
OVER the years, companies in Swaziland have failed to participate in the United Nations (UN) International Competitive Bidding Process thus representatives will visit the country so as to create awareness on it.
Swaziland Investment Promotion Authority (SIPA) Chief Executive Officer Phiwayinkhosi Ginindza said the UN office in Uganda voiced this concern at the Global Expo they participated in a few weeks ago.
The expo was organised by the Botswana Export Development and Investment Authority (BEDIA). Ginindza said in a bid to make Swazis aware of the numerous business opportunities at the UN, the office would come to mobilise locals so that they would tap into the agency’s budget.
“All UN members have a right to tender for goods and services of the organ hence the Uganda office will come and create awareness on the opportunities locals might seize there. The UN has two offices for food procurement,” he said...
CJ rules against Greece in row with Macedonia
The Hague - The International Court of Justice on Monday ruled against Greece in its long-running dispute with Macedonia over the country's use of the name Macedonia, which is also the name of a northern Greek province.
Greece vetoed Macedonia's accession to NATO in 2008 because of the row, violating a 1995 interim agreement between the two nations.
Greece had said it would not block Macedonia's attempt to join international organizations if it used the name Macedonia, which it adopted after it became independent from Yugoslavia in 1991.
The United Nations court ruled 14:2 against Greece, which argues the name Macedonia is a part of its historic legacy.
CTBTO PSA with Michael Douglas – Video
Oscar-winning actor and producer Michael Douglas is well known for his commitment to nuclear disarmament. Now he has teamed up with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization on a series of austere but powerful TV spots aimed at raising support for the Treaty.
Next War - Iran
The Geopolitics of the times may indicate that the next war is Iran. Although Pakistan being an established nuclear power would logically be higher on the scales of denuking agenda for so called globalists. Still Geopolitical logic dictates otherwise.
'Never Before Has the World Been as Close to War with Iran'
The EU tightened sanctions against Iran Thursday, but stopped short of imposing an oil embargo against the country. Meanwhile, pressure in the US Congress mounts for stricter penalties on Iran. German commentators weigh the options against Iran Friday, concluding that none of them are promising.
Clinton Moves to Inject New Urgency into Bioweapon Concerns at Geneva Event
WASHINGTON -- In a surprise announcement, a senior State Department official said on Thursday that Hillary Clinton would appear next week at an international conference on biological warfare prevention and preparedness -- an event that even policy wonks had previously grumbled would likely prove dull and inconsequential (see GSN, Aug. 2).
China feels India's nuclear heat
NEW DELHI: Given the incendiary moniker ''the China killer'' by the more sensationalist press, India's newest nuclear-capable missile will be its most powerful yet - and an unmistakable signal to its neighbours.
Agni V - named after the Hindu god of fire - is due to be tested within three months. It will be capable of carrying a nuclear warhead 5000 kilometres, meaning it can reach not only Beijing and Shanghai but all of northern China.
India's existing arsenal can already reach every corner of Pakistan using earlier models of the Agni delivery system.
The State Department vs. Free Speech
Hillary Clinton chats up the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which demands world-wide bans on criticizing Islam.
... President Obama should put a stop to this nonsense and declare that in free societies all views and religions are subject to contradiction and critique—and the OIC must learn to tolerate that. The alternative is what the late Indonesian Muslim President Abdurrahman Wahid called "a narrow suffocating chamber of dogmatism."
Ms. Shea and Mr. Marshall are senior fellows at the Hudson Institute's Center for Religious Freedom and authors of "Silenced: How Apostasy & Blasphemy Codes Are Choking Freedom Worldwide" (Oxford University Press, 2011).
GAP’s Investigation into World Bank Managing Director Mohieldin Now Available in Arabic
Upgrade Your Life: How to Extend Your Wifi Range – Video
Energy Aid Founded by IBM and Practical Action Launches to Provide Universal Energy Access
--New charity dedicated to the global eradication of energy poverty - Supported by Secretary of State for International Development and United Nations Industrial Development Organization. - Strategy includes a global awareness campaign, an Open Knowledge Base and the creation of an investment fund. - UN estimates that 1.3 billion people have no access to electricity and a further 1 billion have limited or unreliable access.
Suffer $250 per barrel crude oil if you harm us: Iran
... "As soon as such an issue is raised seriously the oil price would soar to above $250 a barrel”, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said to the local Daily Sharq...
Climate right for change to UN voting rules
THE UN climate conference in Durban has been asked to ditch consensus decision-making in favour of a two-thirds majority voting system to speed up the global response to climate change.
The plan is not new, but it has found an active sponsor in Mexico and leading climate change advocates such as former British climate change adviser Nicholas Stern.
Lord Stern told The Times that reaching a legally binding limit on emissions in the next few years would probably mean abandoning the present process, which requires all 192 UN member states to agree.
Yet more talks as UN costs spiral
HARGEISA (Somaliladpress) – Somaliland President Mr. Ahmed Mohamed Mohamoud Siilaanyo met with delegation led by UN special envoy to Somalia Mr. Augustine Mahiga and the meeting was held at the Presidential Palace today. The delegation is currently on a two day trip to Somaliland.
After the closed meeting Mr Mahiga spoke to the press after concluding his meeting with the President. He reported that that they had discussed a range of issues concerning regional security and development.
He acknowledged that Somaliland has clear polices on security. Speaking on this issue, Mr. Mahiga said, “As we know that no country can progress without peace, security and stability and Somaliland achieved to maintain it.” It is believed that the Somaliland President briefed the UN special envoy to Somalia Mr. Mahiga about his five year plan.
No mention was made of the spiralling cost of such continual shuttle diplomacy and seemingly mundane and fruitless talks.
Challenges at the Cutting Edge of Fighting Global Poverty
Jeffrey Sachs
Director, Earth Institute at Columbia University; Author, 'The Price of Civilization'

... In a recent article in the Economist, several wrong claims were made about the project based on an unpublished paper. One claim is that the project is not working since the progress in the Millennium Villages is also occurring in the neighboring villages, albeit at a slower rate. This is a mistaken criticism. The project itself has been encouraging the take-up of a range of interventions (bed nets, fertilizer, high-yield seeds, new diagnostic methods, and so forth) in neighboring villages and at the national scale. In fact, the Millennium Village Project in Kenya directly supported the procurement and distribution of 160 tons of fertilizer and 22 tons of seeds to two of the neighboring "comparison" villages included in this paper. Rather than undercutting the point of the project, progress nearby the Millennium Village sites often helps to prove the point...
Yvo de Boer, Ex-U.N. Climate Chief, Says Talks Are Rudderless
DURBAN, South Africa -- Yvo de Boer said he left his job as the U.N.'s top climate official in frustration 18 months ago, believing the process of negotiating a meaningful climate agreement was failing. His opinion hasn't changed.
"I still have the same view of the process that led me to leave the process," he told The Associated Press Sunday. "I'm still deeply concerned about where it's going, or rather where it's not going, about the lack of progress."
Rise of the TIMBIs
Forget the BRICs. The real economies that will shake up the world over the next few decades need a new acronym.
... Future trends still look robust in Brazil and India, but these countries should now be in new company -- a group of dynamic and democratic emerging economies. Let's call them the TIMBIs: Turkey, India, Mexico, Brazil, and Indonesia. These countries form more than just a cute acronym. They all share favorable demographics and democracy and are already large economies. Their GDPs combined have already surpassed that of China and will be much faster growing in the coming decades. Their combination of booming labor forces and political openness points to rapid increases in human capital and innovation that will propel these regional powers into global powers in the near future...
Narrative Science
...Our proprietary artificial intelligence platform produces reports, articles, summaries and more that are automatically created from structured data sources. With amazing speed and quality, narratives are created in multiple formats, including long-form articles, headlines, Tweets and industry reports. Multiple versions of the same story can be created to customize the content for each audience and narratives can be fully tailored to fit a customer’s voice, style and tone.
Dalai Lama to visit Austria next spring
APA News Service
December 5, 2011
Vienna - The Dalai Lama, spiritual leader of the Tibetans and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, will spend a week in Austria in May 2012, according to the Tibetan Center at Huettenberg in Carinthia in southern Austria.
He would be in the Carinthian capital Klagenfurt from May 18 to 20, where his schedule would include a lecture on "The Art of Happiness". In Salzburg on May 21, he would lecture on "World Peace and Universal Responsibility - Harmony in Multiplicity".
In Vienna on May 25, his theme would be "Ethics and Human Values in Today's Society". There would also be a symposium on Buddhism and science the following day.
It is not yet known whether any Austrian officials will receive the world figure Dalai Lama, and risk angering Austria's number one Asian trading partner China. When he last came to Austria in 2007, he was received by then-chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer, which led to a diplomatic freeze between Vienna and Beijing.
A recent survey showed the enormous respect in which the Dalai Lama, the 1989 Nobel Peace Prize winner, is held among the Austrian population.
Predominantly Catholic Austrians would soonest entrust themselves spiritually to the Dalai Lama, said a "confidence index" by the Austria Press Agency and OGM polling institute.
He was far ahead of Austria's highest Catholic dignitary, Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn, who was in second place, and Pope Benedict XVI who was third. There was least trust in the heads of the Austrian Muslim and Jewish Communities.
The OGM said the Dalai Lama was at the top of the list due to his friendly nature, modest lifestyle, basically liberal attitude, and history as a victim of persecution. People also liked him because of the absence of a church power structure.
The risks of sleepwalking into a war with Iran
Financial Times
2 December 2011
By David Miliband and Nader Mousavizadeh
David Miliband was British foreign secretary from 2007-10. Nader Mousavizadeh is chief executive of Oxford Analytica and was special assistant to former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan
Iran's challenge to global order has been among the most complex and confounding tasks for international diplomacy since that country's 1979 Islamic revolution. A regime with declining domestic legitimacy has increasingly sought to channel discontent towards foreign enemies , imagined and real, and preserve its hold on power by any means. As surprised and disoriented by the Arab awakening as everyone else over the past year, Tehran has been scrambling to respond to the shifting sands of regional geopolitics, amid intensifying rivalries within the leadership itself.
This is the critical context for the escalation in the nuclear crisis now threatening to replace diplomacy with war as the west's response to the Iranian threat. The recent comprehensive International Atomic Energy Agency report on Iran's nuclear programme; public debate in Israel about the wisdom of a military strike, without much pushback from outside the country; private mutterings about the best "window" for such an attack; and now the serious diplomatic consequences of the assault on the British embassy and its staff, are combining to deepen the chasm of distrust to new and dangerous levels.
We subscribe to the view that the price of a nuclear-armed Iran would be very high - unacceptably high. Iran's capacity to destabilise the region would increase considerably. The response from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and others would mean the end of the non-proliferation treaty. The chance that nuclear weapons would be used would be much closer.
But that is not an argument for military action now or in 2012. We are not talking about a discrete - or discreet - strike here. Avowed Iranian nuclear facilities are numerous and the regime does not lack for ammunition or targets in return. In addition to its own missile stores, Iran is invested in regional proxy armies, such as Hizbollah. All the war games show that targets as diverse as Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, Israeli and US facilities and the Straits of Hormuz would come into play.
For these reasons we must avoid military action becoming a self-fulfilling prophesy. Diplomacy must take the lead in preventing a major war with Iran - for that is what it would be. What is more, the regime faces at least four serious challenges of its own. First, it is clear that sanctions, cyberwar and covert operations have impaired Iran's progress towards a nuclear weapons capability, with most estimates holding that the regime is at least two years away from achieving it. To be clear, no one has made the case such an achievement is imminent.
Second, IAEA inspectors continue to monitor key installations and operations, providing a tripwire presence able to signal any dramatic change in policy or practice by Tehran. It would be disastrous if the fallout from the Iranian storming of the British embassy included the harassment or expulsion of inspectors by the regime.
Third, Iran's strategic influence in the region is waning. Its sole ally in the Arab world, the Syrian regime, is badly weakened and more likely entering an end game. Among the Arab public, Iran's popularity has plummeted since the highs of the 2006 Lebanon war.
Fourth, and too often neglected, are the aspirations of the Iranian people. They have often shown that they do not share the regime's hostility to the world and instead aspire to the same kinds of open government that the youth of the Arab world are reaching for.
At a time like this, diplomatic drive and creativity are needed more than ever. Now is the time to support, directly and indirectly, the pressures on a regime currently fractured on all matters except the nuclear programme. And in this endeavour, war talk weakens our hand - strengthening the most uncompromising forces within Iran and corroding global cohesion in opposition to the programme.
Non-military options have not yet succeeded, but nor have they failed. However, exasperating the diplomatic track growing talk of a military option risks creating a logic all of its own, where the appalling consequences of a military strike are set to one side and a precipitate and unwise move to war becomes acceptable wisdom.
Nature abhors a vacuum and so does international politics. It cannot be filled by nudges and winks about military options. A concerted diplomatic effort on Iran is needed now to prevent the world sleepwalking into another war in the Middle East.
Expelling Iran's diplomats: a dangerous showdown
The real threat to British diplomacy in Iran is not losing an embassy, but being seen as a US proxy
... In the meantime, for all its other difficulties, Iran enjoys a better ally in a US- and UK-liberated Iraq than it ever did in Saddam Hussein's years. These are developments that Saudi Arabia and other Arab neighbours cannot let go indefinitely unchecked. So the region lurches towards instability and possible conflict as the west desperately ups the ante on sanctions, hoping this can break the regime and avert conflict.
It will be no comfort for British diplomats that they will now not be granted front-row seats in Tehran for what follows. And given the real dangers, that is all our loss...
Mark Malloch-Brown is a former foreign officer minister and deputy secretary-general of the UN. He is currently Europe, Middle East and Africa chairman of FTI Consulting.
The Journalism Foundation launches
The Independent
Monday, 05 December 2011
The Journalism Foundation, a non-for-profit organisation that promotes, develops and sustains free and fair journalism across the world, launched in London today.
Its founding Chief Executive, Simon Kelner, former editor-in-chief of The Independent, said today: “I am delighted to lead this new body, which will show that journalism can be a force for good by supporting initiatives that have a direct and positive effect on people’s lives.”
The Foundation, which was inspired and is backed by the Lebedev family, has a board of Trustees chaired by Evgeny Lebedev, chairman of The Independent and the London Evening Standard. His fellow trustees include Baroness Kennedy, the renowned human rights lawyer, Lord Fowler, former chair of the House of Commons media select committee, and Sir John Tusa, former director general of BBC World Service.
Evgeny Lebedev said: "At a time when, quite rightly, a light is being shone on malpractice in some areas of the British Press, I am delighted to give my backing to an initiative whose purpose is to demonstrate the positive aspects of journalism. Free speech has always been a touchstone issue for me, and an organisation intent on giving people around the world a voice is worthy of widespread support."
The Journalism Foundation is launching with two initiatives to show the scope and range of its work. The Foundation, in partnership with the department of journalism at London’s City University, is establishing the first practical training courses for journalists in Tunisia, teaching local journalists how to report in a free and open society. The second project sees
The Journalism Foundation supporting a grass roots website in an effort to increase interest in local politics in the British town of Stoke-on-Trent. The site,, was set up in response to a lack of coverage of local council matters, and the Foundation is supporting its development with the aim of bolstering public engagement in the area.
The launch of the Foundation has been acclaimed by figures across the political and cultural landscape. Salman Rushdie said: “ This is an important and valuable – and needed – initiative that aims to uphold and propagate the highest journalistic standards. I wish it the very best.” Jemima Khan said: “A vibrant democracy and a free press go hand in hand. I applaud the work of The Journalism Foundation in trying to strengthen this relationship.” Lord Ashdown said: “There could not be a better time for an organisation like this to be set up to ensure we get the balance right between strengthening what is best in journalism and rejecting what we all now know to be bad.”
Alexander Lebedev said: "I am delighted the Journalism Foundation is launching. For over 20 years I have argued that democracy cannot flourish in countries without a free press. And it is only by championing brave, investigative journalists across the globe that international corruption can be tackled effectively. Now more than ever, we must support journalists who hold the powerful to account – and I am certain this foundation will do that brilliantly.
The Journalism Foundation is seeking new projects to invest in and new partners to help fund those projects. To get involved, go to or follow @4journalism.
John Kennedy Schlossberg Defends JFK's Legacy in the 'New York Times'
The fallen president's grandson writes an earnest letter to the editor, and possibly launches his own political career
Can yoga and meditation help bring peace to Afghans?
KABUL (Reuters) - As the Afghan government's Western backers pour in cash, and tens of thousands of foreign soldiers patrol the country, a French human rights activist is trying a new way to break the cycle of violence in Afghanistan: yoga and meditation.

New Icelandic volcano eruption could have global impact – Video
Hundreds of metres under one of Iceland's largest glaciers there are signs of a looming volcanic eruption that could be one of the most powerful the country has seen in almost a century.
Now a law for foreign aid! Ministers want to commit Britain to billions in handouts
* Promise to spend 0.7 per cent of national income
* Dozens of Tory MPs expected to oppose the move
Terrorism’s Victims Must Be at Heart of Justice Response
Terrorism’s Victims Must Be at Heart of Criminal Justice Response – UN Guide
New York, Nov 22 2011 - A United Nations policy guide released today offers advice on how to reform and improve criminal justice systems so that they are fairer and more sensitive to the needs of the victims of terrorism and their families.
“Victims matter. Their rights and needs, as well as those of their families, should be at the heart of any criminal justice response,” said Executive Director of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) Yury Fedotov during the report’s launch today at UN Headquarters in New York.
The publication includes advice for policy-makers and criminal justice officials and examples of good practices to support victims of terrorism. Recommended measures include judicial assistance, protection from intimidation and retaliation, material, medical, psychological and social assistance, and access to compensation.
“I hope this marks a positive step forward in our joint efforts to create criminal justice systems that are more responsive to the needs of the innocent,” said Mr. Fedotov.
According to UNODC, victims have long played a secondary and mostly silent role in criminal trials, making it crucial to grant them equal and effective access to justice to ensure the effective prosecution of perpetrators.
Robert Orr, Chair of the UN Counter Terrorism Implementation Task Force (CTITF), stressed the importance of helping victims find their public voice to shed light on issues that would otherwise not be addressed.
“The CTITF continues to be committed to elaborating on the compendium of best practices on supporting terrorism victims including media coverage and exploring options for financial and material support for victims.”
The UN has previously taken measures to emphasize the human rights of victims including the adoption of the Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy five years ago, which the report aims to expand on.
“The present publication builds upon this mandate and is intended to promote effective criminal justice mechanisms to support victims of acts of terrorism at a national level,” said Mr. Fedotov, and reiterated UNODC’s commitment provide assistance to countries on law enforcement, legal and legislative guidance.
Award-winning actress and UNODC Goodwill Ambassador Mira Sorvino was also present at the launch, and spoke passionately about her experiences talking to terrorism victims, while stressing the importance of making their voices heard.
“Making victims the central part of any criminal justice response to terrorism is imperative. Not only must they be encouraged to be a major part of bearing witness in the courtrooms but their care and compensation for what they and those close to them have suffered must be of utmost importance to legal systems around the world.”
For more details go to UN News Centre at
After the hope of the Arab Spring, the chill of an Arab Winter
By Daniel Byman
One year after a Tunisian fruit vendor set himself on fire in an act of defiance that would ignite protests and unseat long-standing dictatorships, a harsh chill is settling over the Arab world. The peaceful demonstrations in Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen that were supposed to bring democracy have instead given way to bloodshed and chaos, with the forces of tyranny trying to turn back the clock.
It is too soon to say that the Arab Spring is gone, never to resurface. But the Arab Winter has clearly arrived.
Tunisia, where it all began, recently carried out free elections. But that country — small, ethnically and religiously homogenous, and prosperous — was always a more likely candidate for a successful transition to democracy. Elsewhere in the Middle East, Saudi troops helped orchestrate a crackdown on demonstrators in Bahrain, regime forces gun down protesters in Syria, and Yemen crumbles into civil war, with al-Qaeda running rampant in the countryside. In Libya, we see warlords, Islamists, tribal leaders and would-be democrats vying for power in the post-Gaddafi world. And in Egypt, where the fall of President Hosni Mubarak in February gave us the defining images of the Arab Spring, the military is trying to keep its hands on power.
So what went wrong — and what will an Arab Winter mean for the Middle East, the United States and the rest of the world?
The reason the Middle East has long seemed like infertile soil for democracy is not because Arab peoples do not want to vote or otherwise be free — poll after poll confirms the opposite — but rather because entrenched dictators had long imprisoned or killed dissenters, bought off opponents, undermined civil society, and divided or intimidated their people. And when dictators fall, their means of preserving power do not always fall with them.
In Egypt, the military ushered Mubarak out of office, but stayed in as a supposed caretaker and is reluctant to relinquish power. Now the security forces have again shot people in Tahrir Square. In Yemen and Libya, tribes and other power centers often opposed the old order, but they saw one another as rivals, too. Throughout the region, the police and the judiciary are broken after years of dictatorship, but there is nothing to take their place.
Moreover, the demonstrations that led to the ouster of rulers such as Mubarak and Tunisia’s Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali hardly offered a clear governing alternative. Although they embodied a genuine outpouring of popular rage, the protests were largely leaderless and loosely organized, often via social media; there was no African National Congress or Corazon Aquino to take the reins. You cannot govern by flash mob.
And the opposition voices that were organized were not necessarily the most democratic. With the Arab Spring, Islamist forces rose to prominence. In Tunisia, a moderate Islamist party won victory in the October elections, gaining 89 of 217 seats in parliament, dwarfing the 29 seats of its nearest — secular — competitor. In Morocco, where the king has opened the political system somewhat, the Islamist party likewise won a plurality of the vote in the November elections.
Disciplined by years underground, Islamist groups have popular support because of the social services they provide and the repression they suffered. They were allowed to have a role in society but with limited political participation. Now that groups such as Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood are poised to do well in free parliamentary elections, they are unlikely to accept those old bargains with the military junta in Egypt or other old-regime forces elsewhere.
Brotherhood leaders have learned to mouth a commitment to pluralism and tolerance, but it is unclear that they would act on it when in power. More hard-line Islamists are openly skeptical of democracy, seeing it as a means of gaining power and not as a model for governing. Egyptian salafists, who espouse a more puritanical version of Islam, have also entered the political system and are performing unexpectedly well in the elections; their demands for Islamicizing society are extreme and may push the Brotherhood to pursue a more radical agenda when in power.
These domestic forces often deter democracy in subtle ways, but some other reactionary forces are more brazen. In March, Saudi troops drove across the causeway to neighboring Bahrain, backing a brutal crackdown against Shiite protesters. At home and abroad, the Saudis have spent tens of billions to buy off dissent. Riyadh has pushed fellow monarchs in the Arabian Peninsula and in Jordan to stop any revolutionary movements, and the Saudis are offering a haven for dictators down on their luck, such

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